Atmospheric CO2 rise now exceeding IPCC 1.5C pathways

"Data from the Mauna Loa observatory reveals that 2024 witnessed one of the fastest rises in CO2 concentrations"
January 16, 2025

Summary

The current trajectory of atmospheric CO2 levels is increasingly alarming, as the rate of increase now exceeds the pathways outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Data from the Mauna Loa observatory reveals that 2024 witnessed one of the fastest rises in CO2 concentrations, attributed to ongoing emissions from human activities and weakened natural carbon sinks. The IPCC’s scenarios suggest that to adhere to the 1.5°C limit, CO2 emissions must be curtailed and ultimately reversed.

Highlights

  • 🌍 Accelerated CO2 Increase: The rise in atmospheric CO2 is now one of the fastest on record, exceeding the IPCC’s 1.5°C pathways.
  • 📈 Record Emissions: Global CO2 emissions reached unprecedented levels in 2024, continuing an upward trend.
  • 🌡️ Climate Thresholds: Human-caused global warming has already approached 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, closing in on critical temperature thresholds.
  • 🔄 Natural Sinks Compromised: Weakened land carbon sinks due to extreme weather conditions are exacerbating the rise in atmospheric CO2.
  • 🌧️ El Niño Effects: The El Niño phenomenon has significantly impacted global climate, leading to higher temperatures and reduced vegetation growth.
  • ⚠️ Urgent Mitigation Required: To adhere to climate targets, immediate and sustained action is essential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
  • 📚 Long-Term Implications: The ongoing warming trend and its impacts on carbon sinks could complicate future climate stabilization efforts.

The rate at which atmospheric CO2 is increasing is now outpacing the pathways set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that limit global warming to 1.5C.

This is what the latest data shows from the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii, where measurements of CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been collected for more than 60 years. 

In 2024, the rise in atmospheric CO2 was one of the fastest on record. 

Emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from human activity have so far caused human-caused global warming to reach about 1.3C above pre-industrial levels

If warming is to be limited to 1.5C, as set out in the Paris Agreement, the build-up of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will need to slow to a halt and then go into reverse

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Read the full post at Carbon Brief.

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