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Summary
A recent survey of climate experts reveals widespread skepticism about achieving international climate targets, with a median warming estimate of 2.7 °C by 2100. While some authors remain hopeful, 86% predict warming above 2 °C, indicating urgent action is needed to mitigate catastrophic outcomes as current efforts are deemed insufficient. The study also highlights a “false-consensus effect” among experts regarding their peers’ beliefs.
Highlights -🌍
- Survey Results: Majority of climate experts predict exceeding 2 °C warming by 2100. 📈
- Median Estimate: Experts estimate a median warming of 2.7 °C. 🌡️
- Skepticism: 86% of surveyed authors expect more than 2 °C rise. 😟
- False Consensus: Experts overestimate peer agreement on climate predictions. 🤔
- Need for Action: Current climate efforts are insufficient to meet targets. 🚨
- Diverse Opinions: Wide-ranging beliefs among IPCC authors regarding future warming. 🔍
- Global Impact: Climate change already causing severe weather events at 1.3 °C rise. 🌪️
How hot is it going to get? This is one of the most important and difficult remaining questions about our changing climate. The answer depends not only on how sensitive our climate is to greenhouse gases, but also on how much carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases we as a civilization choose to emit over coming decades.
In order to help think more clearly about this question, we asked authors who have contributed to the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to share their best guesses about where the world is headed.
The results of our recently published study show that most of the responding climate experts believe our planet will likely exceed the 1.5 °C and “well-below 2 °C” warming targets agreed upon by the international community.
